Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Numbers Time: Threeway Ties 2020!!!

When the new expanded playoff format was announced, people worried the #7 seed would be a team with a record so bad, they wouldn’t deserve to make the playoffs. Turns out, people were looking in the wrong place for a team that doesn’t deserve to make the playoffs. But first, the games that don’t matter.


AFC’s Wild Wild Card Race

Three of four division leaders basically don’t matter. Kansas City is locked in at #1, and this year only the top teams get the Bye. Buffalo and Pittsburgh’s placement at #2 or #3 don’t matter much. In the AFC South, Tennessee and Indy could either win the division or be eliminated completely.

The wild card is where things get interesting. Five teams are currently tied at 10-5, and according to tie breaking procedures, in this order: Titans, Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, and Colts. So if all 5 win or lose, the Colts are out. If all but one win, the one losing team is out. If the Colts lose, everyone else is safe, win or lose, and Titans the in the division. And all five have a chance at the #5 seed to avoid the Chiefs as long as possible.

NFC’s Three Threeways

With a win, the Packers lock up #1 and the first round bye. If the Packers lose, we get to hear about NFL tie breaking procedures!!! The Seahawks beat the Packers in a tie. The Saints beat the Seahawks in a tie. But the Packers beat the Saints in a tie. Oh and in a three-way tie, Saints win. It makes no damn sense, but with a win, all three have a chance at the bye, and with a loss, all three have a chance at falling to #3.

Speaking of three way ties, the Giants could make the playoffs with a 6-10 record. We’ve had a 7-9 team make the playoffs, even a 7-8-1 team, but a 6-10 team has never made the playoffs. Appropriate that the Giants could be the ones to do it.

With a win, Washington clinches the NFC East, with a 7-9 record. If they lose, and Dallas wins, Dallas wins the division with 7-9. That’s right, BEST CASE scenario is a 7-9 team wins the NFC East. But if the Giants beat the Cowboys and Washington loses, that’s a three way tie at 6-10, and somehow the Giants win the division for the first time since 2011. Why do the Giants win that? I don’t fucking know.



On the plus side, whoever loses the NFC East is eliminated, so it’s just four teams vying for the 3 wild cards. Tampa clinched, so their worst case is #6. The Rams, Cardinals, and Bears are playing for their season. A win guarantees a spot. If Arizona loses, Bears are in no matter what. If Chicago loses, Rams are in no matter what. If Tampa loses, Rams jump to #5 with a win.

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