UFL Enters Its "Play-Offs"

At the end of Week 7, the Las Vegas Locos are locked into one play-off spot. The league has just announced tie breaking procedures, so I will now attempt to WAY over-analyze possible tie-breakers. First off, here are the match-ups for the remaining 3 weeks of regular season and current standings:

Week 8:
Game 1: Game 2:



Week 9:
Game 1: Game 2:


Week 10:
Game 1: Game 2:

Week 7 : LV 5-1    OM 3-2    FL 2-3    SAC 2-4    HAR 2-4
Week 8 : LV 5-2    FL 3-3    OM 3-3    SAC 3-4    HAR 2-4
Week 9 : LV 5-2    FL 4-3    SAC 4-4    OM 3-4    HAR 2-5 

Scenario #1: OM/FL split series, FL beats HAR, SAC beats OM and loses to LV, leaving OM/FL 4-4
1. Head to head: Series tied
2. Strength of Victory: Having beaten the Locos, FL makes it SAC BEAT LV WEEK 8

Scenario #2: OM/FL split series, SAC & HAR win both, leaving OM/SAC/HAR 4-4
1. Head to head: SAC eliminated due to 0-2 against HAR
1a. Head to head, OM-HAR: Having taken the series, OM makes it. HAR LOST

Scenario #3: OM/FL split series, FL beats HAR, SAC wins both, leaving OM/FL/SAC 4-4.
1. Head to head: FL eliminated due to 0-2 against SAC
1a. Head to head, OM-SAC:  Series tied
2. Strength of Victory: Having beaten the Locos, SAC makes it

Scenario #4: OM/FL split series, SAC wins both, HAR beats FL loses to LV, leaving OM/SAC 4-4
1. Head to head: Series tied
2. Strength of Victory:  Having beaten the Locos, SAC makes it HAR LOST

Scenario #5: FL takes OM 2-0, OM beats SAC, HAR wins both, leaving OM/FL/HAR 4-4
1. Head to head: HAR eliminated due to 0-2 against OM
1a. Head to head, OM-FL: Having taken the series, FL makes it HAR LOST

Scenario #6: FL takes OM 2-0, SAC & HAR win both, leaving FL/SAC/HAR 4-4
1. Head to head: FL eliminated due to 0-2 against SAC and 1-1 against HAR
1a. Head to head, SAC-HAR: Having taken the series, HAR makes it HAR LOST

Scenario #7: FL takes OM 2-0, SAC wins both, HAR loses to LV, leaving FL/SAC 4-4
1. Head to head: Having taken the series, SAC makes it FL WON WEEK 9

Scenario #8: FL takes OM 2-0, SAC beats OM and loses to LV, HAR wins both, leaving FL/HAR 4-4 SAC BEAT LV WEEK 8
1. Head to head: Series tied 1-1
2. Strength of victory: Both beat Locos once, Both took 3-5 teams 2-0
3. Most points scored: As of end of Week 7, HAR is 135, FL is 114, in all likelihood, HAR makes it, but let's say somehow FL makes up the difference and it's a tie.
4. Points differential: As of end of Week 7, FL is +9, HAR is -4. Since HAR has to beat FL to make it this far, let's say that's tied too.
5. Fewest points conceded: As of end of Week 7, FL 105, HAR 139, but what the hell, let's see what comes next
6. Road record: FL would have 3 road wins to HAR's 2. If it makes it this far, that'd be what decides it.

Conclusions:
1) OM wins twice, they're in
2) OM wins once, HAR is out
3) OM has to beat FL at least once
4) OM can only beat HAR in a tie-breaker, not FL or SAC
5) FL wins all three, they clinch
6) If FL wins twice, they can clinch if LV wins twice and OM loses 3
7) FL has an extra game over HAR, so if they rack up big scores, they can overtake them in total points
8) SAC wins twice, FL is out (if they only win 2)
9) HAR wins twice, SAC is out
10) HAR has to not only win twice, but score excessively well both times to maintain total score lead
11) The key to tie-breaker victory now is beating LV, which OM has already failed to do twice

Good News:
Depending on how the stars align, all 5 teams could have the power to shape the Championship. If the Nighthawks, Tuskers, and Colonials hit Week 10 with 3-4 records, and the Mountain Lions go into their Week 10 Bye 4-4, the Tuskers are out of contention, but they hold the key to the entire season. If they win, it's down to Sacramento or Hartford for the remaining a slot, as Sacramento eliminates Florida, and the Colonials fate is in their own hands. If the Nighthawks win, the Colonials are eliminated, but they would then hold the key to the season. If Hartford loses, it's comes down to Strength of Play between Omaha and Sacramento, and Sacramento makes it. If Hartford wins, they eliminate the Mountain Lions, and the Nighthawks go to the championship. But what about the Locos? That brings us to the...

Bad News:
Remember Week 16 of last NFL season, when the Colts sat down their starters and allowed the Jets in the play-offs? The Locos last remaining games are against the bottom 2 teams. The Locos have a chance to play dirty here. If they let Sacramento and Hartford win, that puts both of those teams in positions where they could potentially take the second Championship spot instead of the clearly more deserving Nighthawks or Tuskers. Granted, Omaha and Florida each have an opportunity to knock these teams out, but Las Vegas wields a lot of power right now and how they handle it will determine what kind of team they really are. Week 5 the Locos beat the Mountain Lions 26-3. If the Locos let Sacramento win Week 8 then bring their all Week 10 against Hartford, it would be to me a clear attempt to setup the Mountain Lions as their Championship opponent. So the question now is, are the Locos as gigantic douches as the Colts? Let's find out.


UPDATE - 11/6/10

With Week 8 out of the way, it's now do or die for basically everyone in Week 9.
• If Sacramento wins, they finish 4-4, in a position to beat Florida or Omaha head to head. SPOILER: 2 Hartford victories, or a team clinches
• If Omaha wins, they can clinch Week 10, and Sacramento's out. SPOILER: Florida victory Week 10
• If Hartford wins, they can join a tie with a Week 10 victory, and Florida can't clinch. SPOILER: a Sacramento loss, or Omaha clinches
• If Florida wins, they can clinch Week 10, and Hartford's out. SPOILER: Sacramento wins, and they don't clinch

UPDATE - 11/13/10

It's as simple as this: Florida wins next week, they're in. Omaha wins next week, Sacramento's in.