Football's Fucking Exciting

Both of my teams, Patriots and Eagles, are safely in the playoffs. Both are also trying to line themselves up for optimal schedules in the post-season. Nine of this week’s 16 games have playoff implications. The 6 NFC playoff teams are all locked in, but 4 of them (Eagles, Vikings, Cardinals and Cowboys) could reach the coveted #2 spot and the first round bye with which it comes. The Patriots and Bengals are in play for the #3 AFC spot, which automatically avoids the Colts in round 2. Speaking of the AFC, both Wild Card slots are up for grabs to 7 different teams (Jets, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Steelers all 8-7; Dolphins, Jaguars both 7-8)

NOTE: Understanding all this requires understanding NFL’s tie-breaking procedures.

Games That Don’t Matter:

Unless you live in one of these 14 cities, the outcomes of these games do not matter.


The NFC Climb to #2:
Saints have locked up #1. If the Eagles and the Packers win, regardless of the Vikings result, the NFC will be #2 Eagles, #3 Vikings, #4 Cardinals, #5 Packers, #6 Cowboys. If the Eagles win, Vikings lose, and Cardinals win, Cardinals take #3 and Vikings drop to #4. If the Cowboys win, use this handy chart to figure out results based on the other two games:

MIN/ARI win #2 Vikings #3 Cardinals #4 Cowboys #5 Eagles #6 Packers

MIN/GB win #2 Vikings #3 Cowboys #4 Cardinals #5 Packers #6 Eagles

GB win #2 Cowboys #3 Vikings #4 Cardinals #5 Packers #6 Eagles

ARI win #2 Cardinals #3 Cowboys #4 Vikings #5 Eagles #6 Packers

In other words, watch the Eagles/Cowboys game if you can.

The AFC Cluster Fuck to the Wild Card:
This is the 1:00 game to watch. Both teams are fighting for a chance at the playoffs. If the Steelers win, a long combination of other wins and losses this week could give them a second chance at redeeming a blown season. If the Dolphins win and all 5 of the other teams lose, they would actually get in.
In a tie-breaker, the Jaguars would actually fare pretty well. If the Jaguars win, they might have a shot at the #5 spot even. If they lose, they’re out.

The Patriots want the #3 spot. That means if they win the first playoff game, they go onto the Chargers instead of the Colts. That also means they have to win this game. If the Texans win and no less than two of Jets, Ravens, Broncos lose they’re in for the first time in franchise history.
It’s very simple. If the Ravens win, they’re in. If they win, and the Jets lose, they’re #5. If they win and the Jets win, they’re #6. If the Ravens lose, they’re out.
The Broncos do not control their own fate. Winning, of course, makes their playoff hopes more likely, but if they lose, and so do a bunch of other teams, they could make it in anyway. Statistically, they have the best chance of making the playoffs.
There’s a good reason this is the 8:20 game. The Jets are the only team right now that completely controls its own fate. If they win, they’re the #5 team. If they lose, they’re out. For the Bengals, if they win and the Patriots lose, they get the #3 slot. These all or nothing stakes, and the recent loss of Bengal receiver Chris Henry, make this game the most worthy of the primetime slot.