This Is a Blog: Numbers Time: A Statistical Glint

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Numbers Time: A Statistical Glint

Well, 2016 sucked. My neighbor is unhappy we refused to put up more Christmas lights than just the crappy piece sign I made out of a hula hoop. Sorry, we just don't have the spirit in us this year. As this dumpster fire burns out and we try to convince ourselves the Times Square ball dropping will magically end the horror, let's at least take some time revel in my favorite part of football: math! I love playoff scenarios, even though has tried to ruin it by posting the playoff picture way too fucking early. As always, let's start with the fully half of the games that don't fucking matter (much like life in general):

NFC (or No Fucking Chance the Tampa thing happens)

Dallas has a firm grip on first place, and no one can knock the Giants from #5. The other four slots are up for grabs, and not everyone is safe.

This game is so fucking exciting, I'm pissed I'll probably miss it. I hope I can make it to a bar before 8:30. The Lions have quietly climbed to the top of the NFC North, only to be knocked from their spot by a suddenly-not-terrible Packers. The winner of this game wins the division, and depending on the outcome of the other games, the loser could be out completely. The Lions could even score a first-round bye with a win.

The Falcons are playing to hold onto their first-round bye, but with a loss, they could lose it to the Seahawks or Lions, maybe even dropping to 4th. With a loss, Seattle holds 4th place, but a win puts them half a game over Detroit and Green Bay, THEN if the Falcons also lose, they could somehow slip into a bye.

Washington needs to win to stay alive, and to knock off the loser of the NFC North game.

Then there's this year's craziest shit that could happen. If Tampa Bay wins, they're counting on a "Luke Skywalker shoots a missile into a tiny exhaust port" long shot. If Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco, Tennessee, and Indianapolis also win AND the Giants FUCKING TIE Washington, the Buccaneers slink through the labyrinthine tie-breaking procedures and somehow slip into #6. Call your bookie; last I heard it's a 60,000:1 shot.

AFC (or Afraid of Facing the Chiefs)

With all 6 playoff teams decided, the Steelers locked into third place, and Texans locked into fourth, only three AFC games actually matter.

Finally, the Pats are in the big week 17 game. First seed may seem like a luxury, but for the New England Patriots, home field advantage is the best shot to make it to the Super Bowl for Brady's seventh time. Standing in their way are the surging Dolphins, who are managing to find success without their starting QB. With a win and bad luck for the Chiefs and the now Carr-less Raiders, Miami could jump to 5th and avoid the dominant Steelers for one week.

Matt McGloin, a QB with everything to prove vs. a pissed off Denver D. A win could vault Oakland to #1 if the Pats lose. A loss could cost them the division and first-round bye, unless KC also loses.

Anyone who saw the Chiefs dismantle the Broncos should be afraid, very afraid. With the high chance the Raiders will lose, KC has a chance to take the AFC West and #2 seed with a win. With a loss, they could potentially drop to the sixth seed. Not gonna lie, Steelers/Chiefs is the playoff matchup I REALLY want to see.

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