Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Numbers Time: Hoosier Daddy?

Hopefully, this one will be quick, as my basic point is Indiana changes nothing. If this is the first of these you're reading, go back and read a few, as I'm not going to re-state my methodology. We're going to do a compare/contrast with before and after Indiana.

Last week, I wrote based on a guesstimate of Bernie being behind by 285. Over the course of the week, that number fluctuated a bit around 287, but even being off by a few delegates, my point still stands. Bernie only won 5 more delegates than Hillary in Indiana.


Before Indiana, Bernie needed 64% of the remaining delegates, now he needs 65%. Before Indiana, Bernie had a 285 delegate gap to close with 14 races to go, but now he has a 282 delegate gap with 13 races to go. That means before Indiana, he needed to win 20.36 delegates per race, but now he needs 21.69 delegates per race.  He is doing WORSE than before. Here are his average goals for the remaining 13 races.

West Virginia292687.9%
Virgin Islds.77100%
Puerto Rico604168.3%
New Jersey1267458.7%
New Mexico342882.3%
North Dakota1818100%
South Dakota2020100%

To recap, Bernie's not going to get 100% in those six races, absolute best he could do is +39 combined. Best case is +18 in West Virginia and +21 in New Mexico (as the reduced totals in the first six races would max out these two states). Before Indiana, at this point in the math, it was 207 delegates in 6 races, but now it's 204 delegates in 5 races. Before Indiana, he needed +34.5 in these remaining 6 races, but now he needs +40.8  in these remaining 5 races. That means:

Puerto Rico605184.2%
New Jersey1268466.3%

Before Indiana, Bernie's absolute best case scenario is he'd come into California needing +108 delegates (61.3%). Now, Bernie's best shot is coming into California needing +124, or needing 63.1% of the vote.

I understand Bernie winning is a big deal for his supporters, but this win changes nothing. If anything, this win was so minor, it put Bernie in a worse position to win.

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