This Is a Blog: Numbers Time, For the Last Time?

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Numbers Time, For the Last Time?

Truth be told, CNN is my election night site. If you ignore the spin, their results widget is really easy to use. I wish I could just go on 538, but they don't have widgets. I need widgets. I need graphs and tables. The funny part is watching it refresh. With 0% reporting, they called Maryland first. What? It would seem that before official results came in, Hillary had clearly won Baltimore by a hefty enough margin to call it. Weird.

As I sit waiting for concrete enough results to start crunching numbers, it's kind of fun watching the results flop. One minute, Bernie is winning in three races, the next, he's only winning one. Connecticut is still flopping with each passing second. It's so adorable that 33% of the Rhode Island result is only 60,000 people. My old neighbor state is so tiny. Even as I type this, Connecticut flipped from Hillary to Bernie. Crazy. And as I was typing that, they called Rhode Island for Bernie.

And now Hillary is ahead by .1% in Connecticut. All of Delaware's delegates have been allocated, and Hillary has +3 (need to confirm that). Hillary is back over 50% in CT... and now she's back down to exactly 50%. More refreshing! Why won't they report more than 55 PA delegates!? They called CT for Hillary with 50.3%. Now it's just time to wait for all the delegates to report as allocated.

And... I'm tired of waiting for actual results. I'm sure by tomorrow morning, something more accurate will come out, but for now 538 is saying Hillary will pick up a net of about +50, so that's good enough for me. They're estimating Hillary now being ahead by 285.

Of the remaining 1016 delegates, Bernie needs 651, or 64%. With 14 races remaining, Bernie needs to win an average of 20.36 delegates per race. In one last attempt to give Bernie everything possible, I'm going to do the math based on +20 per race, even though, to be clear, if he wins all these races by +20 and no more, he still loses.

Here's where Bernie stands in the remaining races.

West Virginia292584.5%
Virgin Islds.77100%
Puerto Rico604066.7%
New Jersey1267357.9%
New Mexico342779.4%
North Dakota1818100%
South Dakota2020100%

I highlighted any race over 65%, and I added Guam and the Virgin Islands back in because we need to get real about those races. They also highlight how many of these races where a +20 spread is impossible.

Before I go on, I want to re-state that I'm doing this as an explanation. Bernie Sanders absolutely should keep campaigning. Anyone who says he needs to pack it in needs to find another hobby. He has a platform and he should take advantage of it until his money runs out. He should take this time in the national spotlight to get himself a plum spot in Senate leadership and start leading his revolution for real.

But yeah, he has lost this race. 

Before Utah, Bernie was behind by 345, and for a time, he had the lead cut to, according to some, 194. Now he's back up to about 285. Including his biggest surge and his biggest wins of the election, his net gain of the past month is only +60. He is simply not doing enough to close that gap. 

What's that you say? California has 475 delegates, surely Bernie still has hope. One last time, let's give Bernie every opportunity possible. 

Right off the bat, there is not a single projection giving Hillary or Bernie more than 4 out of Guam and Virgin Islands' delegates. Let's go crazy and give Bernie 5 (71.4%) in both, for a combined advantage of +6. Like last time, let's say Bernie can pull off 80% in Montana and the Dakotas, combined +33. So in five of the six races where Bernie can't meet his goal, his best shot is +39 (33+6), and let's assume, like last time, he has exactly zero shot of winning DC, so we'll call it a tie, net zero delegates for either candidate.

Now we're talking about 246 net delegates in 8 races, or +30.75 per race. That's impossible in WV, so let's give him 80% there too for +18, so now we're at 228 in 7 races, or +32.57 per race. Unless Bernie's going to win NM with 97% of the vote, let's say that eliminates NM as well. And let's call NM at 80% or +21, bringing us to 207 delegates in 6 races or +34.5 per race. Let's say +34 to be nice. See the chart below for those results, and consider that before New York 207 was the gap, and that's when he had 19 races to close it. 

Puerto Rico604778.3%
New Jersey1268063.5%

Using surrounding states as a measure, we can make certain assumptions. Bernie's best performance anywhere even close to Indiana and Kentucky is Minnesota, 61.6%, which translates to +19 in Indiana and +13 in Kentucky. Bernie won Washington with 72%, so that's +27 in Oregon. Bernie just lost every state surrounding New Jersey by a lot, so let's say that +20 in the top chart is his best case scenario here. Hillary is wildly popular in Puerto Rico, so let's be really nice and give Bernie +20 here too. That leaves 108 delegates in just California.

So let's be clear here. Bernie has to win EVERY race from here on in. He has to win 5 races with 80%, 3 races with over 70%, 3 races with over 60%, and actually win New Jersey and DC. And if all of that goes his way, he still needs to win California with 61.3% of the vote.

But I guess if Hillary can win Texas and Florida by 65%, Bernie technically has a chance. I don't want to rub salt in wounds, so I'm not going to write another one of these unless half that shit happens, or if people won't shut up about Bernie still having a chance.

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