Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Post New York Numbers Time

Is it all over for Bernie Sanders? Could there be a dumber question? Even if Bernie was behind by 500 delegates, he still shouldn't drop out. Debate and competition are good for democracy, and what Bernie has to say is important.

But, numbers.

As of right now, Hillary won NY by +31, her fifth biggest win, bigger than all but one of Bernie's wins. With some of the issues coming out of NYC, the results may change, but probably not by much. With all of the adjustments of the past week or so, Hillary's current lead is up for debate, but I'm going with 237. That's based on fivethirtyeight's projection yesterday that she was up by 206, plus the 31 from New York.

With 19 contests remaining, and assuming Bernie wins 100% in Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands, that means Bernie needs to average +13.1 delegates per contest in the remaining 17 races.

Rhode Island241977.1%
West Virginia292172.4%
Puerto Rico603760.8%
New Jersey1267055.2%
New Mexico342469.1%
North Dakota181686.1%
South Dakota201782.5%

Long story, short, Bernie is almost exactly where he was before Wyoming, but he needed to have made big gains. A lot of the late results and re-adjustments have worked in his favor, and New York almost completely erased those gains. The biggest issue is that these numbers have never looked good for Bernie, and two weeks later, he has made no progress. The story is all about gains in big states to lower the margins in smaller states, and he has yet to do that.

Last time, I said, even if Bernie wins Wyoming by +10, New York by +15, Pennsylvania by +58, and half the races between PA and CA, he'd still have to average +19.9 delegates in the remaining 7 races.  A loss in NY does not bode well for Bernie's chances, so +58 seems unlikely. Let's say he swings back and wins Pennsylvania by +31.

And like before, let's say Bernie and Hillary evenly split the 7 contests between PA and CA, giving Bernie a +20 net. That means in the remaining 7 contests, Bernie has to close a 172 delegate gap, averaging +24.5 per. That puts him out of the race in all but 3 of them, and he needs 85.3% in New Mexico.

Backing up, let's say our minimum goal is getting Bernie's average back below 18, so he's at the very least viable in all 7 contest, in other words, close the delegate gap to under 126. I really don't think it's possible for Bernie to not only win all the contests between PA and CA, let alone by +13 each, so my assessment that they split 8 of the 9 races is the most fair I can be. Assuming the Washington results repeat in Oregon, that's 72.7%, and still only +27. That means Bernie has to win PA by +70 (68.5%) , just to keep alive in all the races. Hillary won Florida and Texas with 65%, so that's the best I can imagine for Bernie in PA, which is about +57. Mind you, that's crazy, since she's currently polling ahead, but let's say that's what happens. That is a +19.8 average in the remaining 7 contests.

Fuck it, let's give him 80% in Montana and the Dakotas. That's +11 in MT, +10 in ND, and +12 in SD. Washington DC is clearly Hillary country, so let's be nice and say they split that evenly. Even though Hillary is favored in NJ & NM, let's say Bernie clears the bar with +20 (57.9% & 79.4% respectively). That still leaves a 66 delegate gap, and only California to clear it.

So, to be clear, even if pretty much everything, even totally unrealistic things, go in Bernie's favor, he still not only needs to win California, but win it with 57%. But hey, Hillary just won NY with 58%, so that is still within the realm of possibility.

So no, it's not over for Bernie. It is possible, and if it's possible, there's hope. And hope is what Bernie is all about.

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